The Fomoworth Casebook
Real data · SolanaLaunches from Sir FOMO’s random sample, 2026-10-27 to 2026-11-02 (UTC), grouped by what happened in their first hour. Hits, misses and the unclear are all here, with how common each was.
How common each outcome was
524 comparable launches were followed from their first minute in these 7 days; 524 have a one-hour outcome on record. 644 other sampled launches are left out: they are quoted in other tokens or ran in mayhem mode, where the protocol can change the curve’s settings, so their prices cannot be compared like for like.
Each percentage is out of the 524 comparable launches with a one-hour outcome, and every launch is in exactly one group.
Price at one hour, compared with five minutes after launch
Higher at one hour
1.0%
5 of 524 · Price at one hour more than 1% above its five-minute price.
Little or no change
41%
213 of 524 · Price at one hour within 1% of its five-minute price.
Lower at one hour
22%
117 of 524 · Price at one hour more than 1% below its five-minute price.
Other outcomes
Completed the curve
3%
14 of 524 · Its bonding curve completed within the first hour.
Rose, then gave it back
0.2%
1 of 524 · Reached at least twice its five-minute price, then was below that at one hour.
Went quiet
32%
166 of 524 · Fewer than five successful transactions in its whole first hour.
Record incomplete
2%
8 of 524 · Observations were too sparse or stale to compare prices.
Groups are checked in this order: completed the curve, went quiet, record incomplete, rose then gave it back, then the one-hour price. A bonding curve’s price cannot fall below its launch price, so falls are measured from the five-minute price.
Cases are drawn by a fixed rule — a hash of each address and the edition date — so they are the same for every reader and are not picked for drama. A new edition starts each day. Only SOL-quoted, non-mayhem launches are included, because their prices can be compared.
Completed the curve
Its bonding curve completed within the first hour.
A4ErMy…Vbpump
Launched 2026-11-02 14:26:00 UTC · creator’s label “XTO” (unverified)
Known at five minutes
as of 2026-11-02 14:31:00 UTC
- Transactions so far
- 2
- Price vs creation
- —
- Curve progress
- —
- Distinct traders seen
- —
- Creator’s own first buy
- 79.3% of supply
- Creator’s earlier launches on record
- 0
What happened by one hour
evaluated 2026-11-03 22:56:48 UTC
- Completed its curve
- Yes
- Price comparison
- Not comparable after completion
- First-hour transactions
- 3
Once a curve completes, trading moves to an exchange pool. Those prices come from a licensed data feed that is not shown publicly, and they do not compare reliably with curve prices, so no price multiple is given.
MAXXib…Jn5CCk
Launched 2026-11-01 18:07:45 UTC · creator’s label “Maxxmas” (unverified)
Known at five minutes
as of 2026-11-01 18:12:45 UTC
- Transactions so far
- 1,568
- Price vs creation
- —
- Curve progress
- —
- Distinct traders seen
- —
- Creator’s own first buy
- 30.7% of supply
- Creator’s earlier launches on record
- 0
What happened by one hour
evaluated 2026-11-03 22:42:28 UTC
- Completed its curve
- Yes
- Price comparison
- Not comparable after completion
- First-hour transactions
- 1,580
Once a curve completes, trading moves to an exchange pool. Those prices come from a licensed data feed that is not shown publicly, and they do not compare reliably with curve prices, so no price multiple is given.
Higher at one hour
Price at one hour more than 1% above its five-minute price.
9sZFdt…Pypump
Launched 2026-11-02 11:05:23 UTC · creator’s label “HODL” (unverified)
Known at five minutes
as of 2026-11-02 11:10:23 UTC
- Transactions so far
- 254
- Price vs creation
- 2.2x
- Curve progress
- 43%
- Distinct traders seen
- —
- Creator’s own first buy
- 17.5% of supply
- Creator’s earlier launches on record
- 0
What happened by one hour
evaluated 2026-11-03 22:54:44 UTC
- Completed its curve
- No
- Price at one hour vs five minutes
- 1.6x
- Highest seen vs five minutes
- 1.7x (at least)
- First-hour transactions
- 429
HnGKh6…yFpump
Launched 2026-11-02 19:50:56 UTC · creator’s label “NONUT” (unverified)
Known at five minutes
as of 2026-11-02 19:55:56 UTC
- Transactions so far
- 1
- Price vs creation
- 1.1x
- Curve progress
- 4%
- Distinct traders seen
- —
- Creator’s own first buy
- 3.4% of supply
- Creator’s earlier launches on record
- 0
What happened by one hour
evaluated 2026-11-03 23:02:57 UTC
- Completed its curve
- No
- Price at one hour vs five minutes
- 1.0x
- Highest seen vs five minutes
- 1.0x (at least)
- First-hour transactions
- 8
Little or no change
Price at one hour within 1% of its five-minute price.
HuQz3W…rTpump
Launched 2026-11-02 08:37:05 UTC · creator’s label “Tardigrade” (unverified)
Known at five minutes
as of 2026-11-02 08:42:05 UTC
- Transactions so far
- 20
- Price vs creation
- 1.0x
- Curve progress
- 0%
- Distinct traders seen
- —
- Creator’s own first buy
- 3.5% of supply
- Creator’s earlier launches on record
- 0
What happened by one hour
evaluated 2026-11-03 22:52:43 UTC
- Completed its curve
- No
- Price at one hour vs five minutes
- 1.0x
- Highest seen vs five minutes
- 1.0x (at least)
- First-hour transactions
- 21
Hyf7hi…SZpump
Launched 2026-11-02 16:07:52 UTC · creator’s label “Chips” (unverified)
Known at five minutes
as of 2026-11-02 16:12:52 UTC
- Transactions so far
- 85
- Price vs creation
- 1.0x
- Curve progress
- 0%
- Distinct traders seen
- —
- Creator’s own first buy
- 9.6% of supply
- Creator’s earlier launches on record
- 0
What happened by one hour
evaluated 2026-11-03 22:58:51 UTC
- Completed its curve
- No
- Price at one hour vs five minutes
- 1.00x
- Highest seen vs five minutes
- 1.0x (at least)
- First-hour transactions
- 91
Lower at one hour
Price at one hour more than 1% below its five-minute price.
2Y5GZi…rDpump
Launched 2026-11-02 09:54:02 UTC · creator’s label “MG” (unverified)
Known at five minutes
as of 2026-11-02 09:59:02 UTC
- Transactions so far
- 107
- Price vs creation
- 1.6x
- Curve progress
- 27%
- Distinct traders seen
- —
- Creator’s own first buy
- —
- Creator’s earlier launches on record
- 0
What happened by one hour
evaluated 2026-11-03 22:52:44 UTC
- Completed its curve
- No
- Price at one hour vs five minutes
- 0.64x
- Highest seen vs five minutes
- 1.2x (at least)
- First-hour transactions
- 210
J4xWNE…Pipump
Launched 2026-11-02 06:22:41 UTC · creator’s label “PPMK” (unverified)
Known at five minutes
as of 2026-11-02 06:27:41 UTC
- Transactions so far
- 9
- Price vs creation
- 1.1x
- Curve progress
- 4%
- Distinct traders seen
- —
- Creator’s own first buy
- 6.6% of supply
- Creator’s earlier launches on record
- 0
What happened by one hour
evaluated 2026-11-03 22:50:41 UTC
- Completed its curve
- No
- Price at one hour vs five minutes
- 0.93x
- Highest seen vs five minutes
- 0.93x (at least)
- First-hour transactions
- 16
Rose, then gave it back
Reached at least twice its five-minute price, then was below that at one hour.
HosMiB…ozpump
Launched 2026-11-02 01:57:27 UTC · creator’s label “PARKJINHYOK” (unverified)
Known at five minutes
as of 2026-11-02 02:02:27 UTC
- Transactions so far
- 2
- Price vs creation
- 1.0x
- Curve progress
- 0%
- Distinct traders seen
- —
- Creator’s own first buy
- 15.2% of supply
- Creator’s earlier launches on record
- 1
What happened by one hour
evaluated 2026-11-03 22:48:38 UTC
- Completed its curve
- No
- Price at one hour vs five minutes
- 1.3x
- Highest seen vs five minutes
- 4.8x (at least)
- First-hour transactions
- 2,123
Went quiet
Fewer than five successful transactions in its whole first hour.
ABb8tw…Qwpump
Launched 2026-11-01 21:05:23 UTC · creator’s label “ZILENT” (unverified)
Known at five minutes
as of 2026-11-01 21:10:23 UTC
- Transactions so far
- 1
- Price vs creation
- 1.0x
- Curve progress
- 0%
- Distinct traders seen
- —
- Creator’s own first buy
- 1.1% of supply
- Creator’s earlier launches on record
- 0
What happened by one hour
evaluated 2026-11-03 22:44:32 UTC
- Completed its curve
- No
- Price at one hour vs five minutes
- 1.0x
- Highest seen vs five minutes
- 1.0x (at least)
- First-hour transactions
- 1
cJ79aL…s8pump
Launched 2026-11-01 17:04:21 UTC · creator’s label “$JOBLS” (unverified)
Known at five minutes
as of 2026-11-01 17:09:21 UTC
- Transactions so far
- 0
- Price vs creation
- 1.0x
- Curve progress
- 0%
- Distinct traders seen
- —
- Creator’s own first buy
- 0.0% of supply
- Creator’s earlier launches on record
- 0
What happened by one hour
evaluated 2026-11-01 18:20:29 UTC
- Completed its curve
- No
- Price at one hour vs five minutes
- 1.0x
- Highest seen vs five minutes
- 1.0x (at least)
- First-hour transactions
- 2
Record incomplete
Observations were too sparse or stale to compare prices.
6VEuJ5…hLpump
Launched 2026-11-02 00:07:43 UTC · creator’s label “1 DAY OLDCOIN” (unverified)
Known at five minutes
as of 2026-11-02 00:12:43 UTC
- Transactions so far
- 14
- Price vs creation
- —
- Curve progress
- —
- Distinct traders seen
- —
- Creator’s own first buy
- 6.7% of supply
- Creator’s earlier launches on record
- 0
What happened by one hour
evaluated 2026-11-03 22:48:35 UTC
- Completed its curve
- No
- Price comparison
- Not available
- First-hour transactions
- 15
AMD9K7…qWpump
Launched 2026-11-02 07:58:38 UTC · creator’s label “PEACE” (unverified)
Known at five minutes
as of 2026-11-02 08:03:38 UTC
- Transactions so far
- 19
- Price vs creation
- —
- Curve progress
- —
- Distinct traders seen
- —
- Creator’s own first buy
- 6.7% of supply
- Creator’s earlier launches on record
- 0
What happened by one hour
evaluated 2026-11-03 22:52:42 UTC
- Completed its curve
- No
- Price comparison
- Not available
- First-hour transactions
- 20
A case is a record of what happened, not a pattern to copy: the left column shows what could have been known at five minutes, and the right is hindsight. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell, and a quiet or falling launch is not evidence that anyone did anything wrong. Edition generated 2026-11-04 01:13:43 UTC.