It is easy to look at a launch that completed its curve and find, in hindsight, the signs that it would. The Casebook is laid out to make that harder.
Two columns that never mix
The left column of every case uses only observations taken at or before the five-minute mark, as they were recorded then. The right column is hindsight: what happened by one hour. Creator history on the left counts only earlier launches, and only outcomes that were already known before this one began.
Base rates first
Above the cases sits the share of all followed launches that fell into each group. A handful of vivid cases cannot tell you how common something is; the base rate can. Most launches go quiet or fade, and the Casebook shows that rather than hiding it.
Chosen by rule, not by eye
Cases are drawn from each group by a fixed rule — a hash of the address and the edition date — so every reader sees the same cases, and none was picked because it made a good story.